This Week in Golf - September 9th through September 12th

Golf Betting Lines

09/06/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - PGA TOUR - BMW CHAMPIONSHIP, Cog Hill Golf & Country Club, Lemont, Illinois - The BMW Championship marks the third round of the PGA Tour playoffs, reserved for the top 70 players in the FedExCup standings.

Following the fourth round at Cog Hill, only the top 30 players on the points list will make the field for the playoff finale at the Tour Championship, which begins after a one-week break in the schedule.

Tiger Woods won last year's BMW Championship by eight shots after posting four consecutive rounds of 68 or better, collecting his fifth career victory at the tournament.

The win catapulted Woods to his second FedExCup title in three years.

Fighting for his playoff life -- and his No. 1 ranking -- Woods birdied three of his last four holes at the Deutsche Bank Championship on Monday to earn the right to defend his title.

He closed with a three-under 68 to share 11th place at 10-under-par 274. That was good enough to hold off Phil Mickelson and retain his No. 1 ranking. Mickelson needed a top-four finish to pass Woods and was there for a while.

However, Mickelson had a birdie, two bogeys, a double-bogey and a triple-bogey on the back nine en route to a closing 76. That dropped him 14 spots behind Woods on the leaderboard as the left-hander finished at minus-seven.

Charley Hoffman soared to No. 2 on the FedExCup points list as he won the Deutsche Bank Championship by five strokes. Hoffman carded six birdies on the back nine, and 11 in his round, as he fired a nine-under 62. He matched the tournament scoring record of 262.

Padraig Harrington, Lucas Glover, Chris Couch and Charles Howell III started the week inside the top 70, but were bumped out and will miss the final two playoff events.

Scott Verplank was 70th after the Deutsche Bank, but is out for the year with a wrist injury.

Golf Channel will have coverage of the first two rounds of the BMW Championship, while NBC will broadcast the final two rounds.

Mickelson will defend his title at the Tour Championship beginning Sept. 23. Any player inside the top five in the playoff standings will have a shot to win the FedEx Cup by winning the Tour Championship.

LPGA TOUR

NW ARKANSAS CHAMPIONSHIP, Pinnacle Country Club, Rogers, Arkansas - The LPGA Tour returns from a one-week break for the NW Arkansas Championship, a 54-hole event.

The tour has been away since Michelle Wie's victory at the Canadian Women's Open.

At last year's NW Arkansas Championship, Jiyai Shin birdied the second playoff hole to defeat Angela Stanford and Sun Young Yoo.

Seon-Hwa Lee also earned a hard-fought win at this event in 2008 when she birdied the final hole for a one-shot victory over Jane Park and Meena Lee.

The tournament suffered an inelegant debut in 2007 when it was shortened to 18 holes after three days of weather-related problems in the wake of Hurricane Henriette.

Stacy Lewis, then an amateur and the reigning NCAA champion, carded a 65 for the best score, but was not credited for an official win. Officials believed it was the first full-length tour event ever shortened to 18 holes.

Shin, Lee and Lewis will be part of a field at Pinnacle Country Club that is also scheduled to feature Wie, who has begun another year of juggling golf and college.

Golf Channel will have coverage of all three rounds.

The tour is off until Oct. 7 when the Navistar LPGA Classic begins. Lorena Ochoa won the tournament last year, but retired earlier this season.

EUROPEAN TOUR

KLM OPEN, Hilversumsche Golf Club, Hilversum, Netherlands - Simon Dyson birdied the first playoff hole at last year's KLM Open to beat Peter Lawrie and Peter Hedblom for his third European Tour title.

Dyson, who also won the 2006 KLM Open in a playoff, went on to capture win No. 4 at the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship four starts later.

The Englishman will try to defend his title this week against a field that also includes the last two major championship winners -- British Open champion Louis Oosthuizen and PGA Championship winner Martin Kaymer.

The tournament returns to Hilversumsche Golf Club in the Netherlands for the first time in five years.

Golf Channel will have coverage of all four rounds beginning at 9:30 a.m. (et) on the first two days and an hour earlier on the last two.

Next week's event is the Austrian Golf Open, where Rafael Cabrera-Bello won last season.

CHAMPIONS TOUR

SONGDO CHAMPIONSHIP, Jack Nicklaus Golf Club Korea, Songdo, South Korea - The Champions Tour travels to Asia for the first time ever this week for the Songdo Championship.

The tournament will be played at the Jack Nicklaus Golf Club Korea, a new track designed by the Hall of Famer.

The field is scheduled to include half of the players ranked in the top-10 in the Charles Schwab Cup standings, including leader and five-time 2010 winner Bernhard Langer.

U.S. Ryder Cup captain Corey Pavin, who is 10th in the standings, has bigger things on his mind and won't be in attendance.

Golf Channel will have coverage of all three rounds.

The Champions Tour will take a one-week break before returning for the SAS Championship, which was won by Tom Pernice Jr. last year.

NATIONWIDE TOUR

UTAH CHAMPIONSHIP, Willow Creek Country Club, Sandy, Utah - Three players in the field this week will be looking to drastically improve their fortunes.

Chris Kirk, Tommy Gainey and Martin Piller are each seeking their third victory of the season. If any one of them reaches the milestone, they would earn automatic promotions to the PGA Tour.

The promotion wouldn't kick in until the PGA Tour playoffs are over.

Josh Teater, who won last year's Utah Championship, is playing on the PGA Tour this season and has earned $900,723 in 26 starts. By contrast, Kirk, the leading money winner on the Nationwide Tour this season, has earned $400,475 in 18 events.

Golf Channel will have coverage of all four rounds.

Next week is the Albertsons Boise Open, which was won by Fran Quinn last year.

Jazzdports Golf Betting News

<< Jimenez wins 18th as Rockies double-up Reds
Denver, CO (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Troy Tulowitzki hit the go-ahead home run and Ubaldo Jimenez finally picked up his long-awaited 18th win of the season as Colorado outlasted Cincinnati, 10-5, to begin a crucial four-game series at Coors F

<< Red Sox activate C Varitek
Boston, MA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Boston Red Sox have activated veteran catcher Jason Varitek from the 15-day disabled list. Varitek had been on the DL since July 1 with a right foot fracture. He was hitting .263 with seven home

<< Alabama DE Dareus to remain sidelined against Penn State
Tuscaloosa, AL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Alabama head football coach Nick Saban stated on Monday the suspension for defensive end Marcell Dareus will not be appealed. Saban stated last week the school planned on appealing the two-game ban

<< Schierholtz helps San Fran down D'Backs in extras
Phoenix, AZ (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Nate Schierholtz ended a pitchers' duel with a two-run triple in the 11th inning, leading the surging Giants to a 2-0 win over the Arizona Diamondbacks to start a three-game series. Aubrey Huff and Edgar

<< Chargers sign QB O'Sullivan
San Diego, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The San Diego Chargers signed quarterback J.T. O'Sullivan to a one-year contract on Monday. O'Sullivan will be the third-string quarterback behind starter Philip Rivers and backup Billy Volek. An eig

Wozniacki downs Sharapova; Kuznetsova exits the Open >>
Flushing Meadows, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Top-seeded 2009 runner-up Caroline Wozniacki upended former champion Maria Sharapova in straight sets Monday to advance at the U.S. Open. Another champion also lost on Monday, as Svetlana Kuz

Hoffman jumps to 51st in world rankings >>
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Charley Hoffman fired a nine-under 62 on Monday to come from behind and win the Deutsche Bank Championship. With the victory, Hoffman soared 81 places to No. 51 in the latest world golf rankings. Tig

Wyoming football player killed, three injured in crash >>
Laramie, WY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Wyoming freshman linebacker Ruben Narcisse was killed and three other football players from the Cowboys were hurt during a single-vehicle wreck early Monday morning. Colorado State Patrol stated four playe

49ers sign QB Troy Smith >>
Santa Clara, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The San Francisco 49ers signed Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback Troy Smith on Monday, while releasing QB Nate Davis. Smith started two games with Baltimore during his rookie year of 2007, but h

Calgary stampedes Eskimos >>
Calgary, AB (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Henry Burris threw three touchdowns and Calgary rolled to a sixth straight win by forcing six Eskimos turnovers en route to a a 52-5 rout in the annual Labour Day Classic. Burris finished with 226 yards and an

How to bet pro football

There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.

These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.

Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.

Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.

Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.

Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.

The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?

To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.

Home vs. Away Teams

Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.

Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.

Price ranges

Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.

The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.

Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.

Playoff teams

It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.

Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.

This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.

Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.

Scoring defense and scoring offense

Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.

Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.

There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.

The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.

Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.

Scoring margin

An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.

In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.

Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.

In sum

Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.

The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.

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Big Ten Conference odds

Teams that should be in: Michigan State, Indiana
Work left to do: Illinois, Purdue, Michigan, Iowa

Behind the big two, the pecking order might be in a bit of flux. Has Michigan State passed Indiana after handling the Hoosiers in East Lansing? Where is Illinois in that mix? What looked like a four-big league last week could be morphing into five -- and even six is not unthinkable at this point if everything breaks right.

Should be in:

Michigan State [21-8 (8-6), RPI: 20, SOS: 15] The Spartans made it four-for-four on the homestand, a gigantic accomplishment that leaves them in extremely good shape. MSU is only 1-6 on the road and is at Michigan and at Wisconsin to close things out, meaning the date with the Wolverines on Tuesday looms very, very large. Beating Texas early will hold up well, as will the rout of Bradley and the win over BYU, but will 8-8 be enough? It very well could be, as the computer numbers are good, but why chance it?

Indiana [18-9 (8-6), RPI: 24, SOS: 32] Hmm ... good thing the last two are at Northwestern and home to Penn State, because IU might want to get both to feel completely safe after dropping its third in the last four, fading after halftime at Michigan State. Who knew the best nonconference win would be over Southern Illinois, which is a gift that keeps on giving for the Hoosiers. The win over Wisconsin also looks good on the mantel.

Work left to do:

Illinois [21-9 (9-6), RPI: 31, SOS: 25] A good performance at Penn State leaves the Illini in pretty good shape. Can they go to Iowa and take care of business to really look on their way? That's a huge game, as there is a possible cluster of teams that will end at 9-7. Illinois beat Bradley, but has lost to Xavier. A 9-7 mark and a semifinals trip in Chicago could be enough with the computer profile hanging in there, but it would be better not to mess around, clinching at least a tie for third.

Purdue [18-10 (7-7), RPI: 47, SOS: 28] Couldn't get it done at Iowa, but did win at Northwestern to put 9-7 squarely in sight. Where does that leave the Boilermakers, though? Even if they beat Minnesota and Northwestern at home, that won't help the computer numbers. Nonconference wins over Virginia, DePaul and Oklahoma are solid, but not spectacular. The Boilers very well might need an upset in the B10 quarters to have a legit claim.

Michigan [19-10 (7-7), RPI: 55, SOS: 53] Well, Michigan did what it needed to do, winning at Minnesota to take control of its fate. The Wolverines have Michigan State and an already-wrapped-up-the-league Ohio State at home to close, so the chances are there. Win both and we can talk. There is no marquee win yet in the profile, and the Wolverines were splattered in several games against name opponents. A mediocre computer profile fueled by a lack of road wins isn't helping, either.

Iowa [16-12 (8-6), RPI: 80, SOS: 64] For the sake of being complete, we'll add Iowa, this season's Stanford. It's plausible that the Hawkeyes could get to 10-6 (at Penn State, vs. Illinois left), but where does that leave them after a gruesome nonconference performance where the best win was over ... Toledo? Iowa State? Cornell?? If they get to 10-6, we can start to look at what they need to do in the B10 tourney, although my gut sense is that they would need to make the final and have knocked off Ohio State or Wisconsin on the way to have any real claim.

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